Forecast discussion: Thanks to tropical moisture moving over the area this late morning, Boston did not see the sunny skies I forecasted. The extra cloud cover came from the same system that will bring a plethora of weather over Wednesday. This will definitely hinder travel plans, both by car or plane, as we head to our Thanksgiving destinations. Right now, Boston is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 7 a.m. Wednesday until 7 a.m. Thursday morning. Also, due to the possibility of strong winds along the coast, Plymouth County east and south, as well as the Cape and Islands, will be under a Wind Advisory from 2 p.m. Wednesday until 3 a.m. Thursday.
But, if you are heading out tonight, and able to arrive before 5 a.m. Wednesday morning, you will be fine. Right now, the low is centered just on shore over central North Carolina. The low will move right up the shoreline, and we will begin to see the effects of the system just before the morning commute. In just a few short hours, the rainfall will become heavier. As we head into the late morning, the effects of colder air trying to move east, as well as the cooler air coming down from the rain itself, will help lower our high temperature for the day. So, from 9 a.m. to noon, we will begin to see some snow showers mix with the rain. There may be a brief period of time when the precipitation changes to all snow, before changing back to a mix. This may create a coating on the ground and streets.
We will continue to see this mix until just before midnight. As the low finally moves east of the region, the cold air behind the low will take over the upper levels of the atmosphere. We will see all precipitation change over to snow. But, before you think you have to be up early to start the snow blower, you do not have to do that. The precipitation will taper off during the overnight, limiting accumulations. The storm will come to an end Thursday morning with lingering snow flurries, although the computer models suggest some leftover snow showers may start up during the early afternoon. However, this will not add to any of the accumulations. After reviewing the area’s television snow maps, I feel WJAR’s map from Providence best fits the Boston area. I see just 1-3 inches falling in the capital city.
After this Nor’Easter moves away, the rest of the weekend is rather quiet. We will keep partly to mostly sunny skies right into Sunday, with temperatures trying to reach the lower 40’s by Saturday. On Sunday, warmer air will try to filter back into our atmosphere, as a warm front moves across Southern New England. We will see temperatures jump towards the upper 40’s, with the risk of some rain showers after sunset. After this long weekend, we will head back to work and school with mostly sunny skies, with temperatures slowly falling back into the lower 40’s for daytime highs on Tuesday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Overcast with showers arriving by 5 a.m. with a low of 37.
Wednesday: Overcast with light to moderate rain beginning before 9 a.m. The high will actual fall from 39 in the morning to about 33 by around 4 p.m. with northeast winds 8-12 mph increasing to 20-25 mph by 4 p.m. Rain mixes with snow by 11 a.m. There may be a brief period of time between noon and 3 p.m. it changes over to all snow, but will become a mix once again after 3 p.m.
Wednesday night: Rain/snow changes over to snow by 11 p.m. We will see a low of 30 with northwest winds of 10-13 mph by 4 a.m.
Thanksgiving Day: morning snow showers; Otherwise, partial sunshine is possible by the late afternoon. We will see 1-3 inches on the ground with a high of 38.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 24.
Friday: Partly sunny with a high of 37.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 22.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Highs 38-41, lows 30-33.
Sunday: Partly sunny with possible showers by 5 p.m. Highs 47-50, lows 35-38.
Monday: Scattered showers end by 3 a.m. with sunny skies and slightly colder temperatures. Highs 44-47, lows 26-29.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-44, lows 27-30.