Forecast discussion: After some sunshine Saturday morning, increased cloud cover took over Boston, keeping temperatures in the lower 40’s. Despite high pressure off the coast of North Carolina, a weak disturbance will create some isolated showers before midnight. But, the disturbance will quickly move out to sea, and we will return to seeing some sunshine by noon on Sunday.
But, we will see more precipitation Sunday night. A low pressure system over central Texas will quickly move into the Ohio River Valley by late Sunday afternoon. We will receive some showers from the system early Monday morning, with intensifying rain soon after the precipitation starts. It will taper to showers by the middle of the morning commute, before all precipitation ends before noon. Warmer air with a warm front will help raise our temperatures to above average territory. We may see the middle 60’s by Monday afternoon.
As we head into the holiday weekend, the models continue to show disagreement on how to handle the weather pattern. Tuesday is fine, as the models all agree on high pressure giving us mostly sunny skies. It will remain warm at first, but cold air behind the high will make the temperatures fall during the late afternoon. We will begin to see increasing clouds after midnight, as a low pressure system developing off the coast of North Carolina begins to slowly move north. But, the biggest question is if the low moves closer to Southern New England, or just moves offshore. After looking over the latest model runs, I believe it is time to change Wednesday’s forecast. The models believe the low will be close enough to give us showers by Wednesday afternoon, with a changeover to a mix of snow, sleet, and rain Wednesday night. So, entering Thanksgiving, we should see the precipitation remain a mix of rain and snow, lasting until noon.
The models continue to disagree on how to handle Black Friday. The American model believes a quick moving cold front from Canada will bring us some snow showers Thursday night into Friday morning. Then, high pressure ridging will bring back sunny skies for the afternoon. But, the European model only gives us snow showers during the early morning hours on Friday. We will go into the weekend with partly sunny skies for Saturday, although the American model feels we may see some isolated snow showers during the morning hours.
So, with all the disagreement with the models, my confidence levels are all over the place. My confidence in the forecast for Wednesday is fair, as the models are coming to a better agreement. But, beyond early Thursday morning, I have to call it low. I am seeing two completely different weather forecasts from the models, with no continuity from model run to model run.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy skies with isolated showers by 11 p.m. It will be milder with a low of 36.
Sunday: Isolated showers end by 10 a.m. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. It will be milder with a high of 54 with west-southwest winds of 10-13 mph.
Sunday night: Showers arrives by 4 a.m. and intensifies to moderate rain. We will see a low of 45. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 7-10 mph.
Monday: Rain tapers to showers and precipitation ends by noon. It will be quite mild with the mercury rising to 65.
Monday night: Clearing skies expected after midnight. We will see a low of 51.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 56. Temperatures will be falling through the evening commute.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy after midnight with a low of 36.
Wednesday: Overcast with showers/light rain arriving by 3 p.m. Highs 42-45, 30-33.
Thanksgiving Day: Overcast with increasing winds and a mix of rain and snow at midnight. Precipitation ends around 1 p.m. A new system cloud bring snow showers by 9 p.m. Highs 41-44, lows 29-32.
Friday: Snow showers end by 8 a.m. Mostly sunny skies expected by noon. Highs 38-41, lows 22-25.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 34-37, lows 21-24.