Forecast discussion: As we enter a new week, we will begin it with a very good low pressure system coming up from Arkansas. This low will bring some heavy rain a few hours before the morning commute begins on Monday. Also, with south winds expected, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the southern coast of eastern Massachusetts from 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. The advisory is during the time we will be at high tide. There is the possibility of shore roads receiving some minor flooding. Also, due to possible strong wind gusts, a Wind Advisory is in effect for far southeast Massachusetts, as well as the Cape and Islands, from 5 a.m. until 2 p.m. Monday.
The rain will be heavy until mid to late morning, before it tapers to showers. During the afternoon, we will see some lingering showers. Thanks in part to a warm front pushing through the area we will have the warmest temperature we have seen in a few months, with highs in the middle 60’s. We will keep the mild temperatures into Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies. Colder air behind the high pressure system will cool our temperatures into the middle 30’s for Tuesday night.
As we head into the holiday weekend, the computer models are beginning to agree that a developing area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coastline will move up towards New England. The only problem right now is the track of the system. If the low stays to our west and south, we will remain in warmer air, meaning more rain. If the low tracks east, we will changeover to snow quicker than we previously thought. Once again, even the National Weather Service is unsure on how to handle the forecast. For now, I will keep continuity with my original thinking. We will see showers and rain developing by the middle of Wednesday morning. It will remain rain until the early evening. By then, temperatures should be cold enough to create a mix of rain, snow, and possibly sleet. By early Thursday morning, it will turn to all light snow showers. Those snow showers will continue until almost noon on Thanksgiving. I am not expecting much in terms of accumulations, but about 2-3 inches is possible in the Boston area. However, I am not writing this forecast in stone, because any change in the track can greatly adjust the forecast.
We will go into Black Friday with dry but cold weather. High pressure behind the system will remain over the Mid-Atlantic, giving us dry weather into Sunday. But, it will remain cold, as daytime highs only reach the upper 30’s Friday and Saturday, and the lower 40’s on Sunday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with showers arriving by 4 a.m. and intensifying to rain by the morning commute. It will be milder with a low of 44.
Monday: Rain tapers to showers by noon. Isolated showers will continue until 5 p.m. It will be quite warm with a high of 66 and strong south-southeast winds of 18-22 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph.
Monday night: Clearing skies expected after midnight and remaining windy. We will see a low of 55 with southwest winds of 15-18 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 57.
Tuesday night: Increasing clouds after 3 a.m. It will be colder with the low falling to 36 degrees.
Wednesday: Overcast with showers and rain by 10 a.m. We will see a high of 42.
Wednesday night: Rain/snow mix by midnight. changing to all snow showers by 2 a.m. We will see a low of 33.
Thanksgiving Day: Snow showers persist until 11 a.m. with partial sunshine in the late afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 26-29.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs 34-37, lows 22-25.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 37-40, lows 29-32.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 28-31.