Forecast discussion: Boston is seeing a picture perfect spring day at the moment. In fact, with the help of some strong south winds, the capital city has gone above the forecasted high temperature. It has reached 70 degrees already, which is about 4 degrees what I forecast last night. High pressure ridging offshore will give way to increasing clouds this evening, ahead of a cold front in the central U.S.
We will see showers arrive over the Bay State by the morning commute on Tuesday. Showers and light rain will continue into the evening commute. I believe the showers will end in time for the Red Sox game, although there may be a delay to get the excess water off the field. However, the front will be offshore by midnight, and skies will begin to clear. High pressure centered over Kansas will give us dry weather into Friday, but cooler air from Canada will lower our high temperatures.
The next chance for rainfall will arrive by the weekend. The computer models are disagreeing at this time in terms of the actual timing of the precipitation. The American model is actually behind the European model. At this time, the American model believes a cold front will bring some showers by Friday afternoon, before we see a slight lull late Friday night. The European model believes we will see showers by Friday morning, and end by Saturday afternoon. The American model forecasts a secondary low coming over the region Friday afternoon, and ending by early Saturday morning. Over the next few days, I hope to find some continuity from the models, so I can get the timing down for the precipitation.
Both models do agree we will see drier weather by Sunday, as the low pressure systems move offshore. We will see partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, before another strong low pressure system brings the risk for some showers next Monday morning.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds after 10 p.m. with a low of 50.
Tuesday: Showers/light rain arrives by 7 a.m. before tapering off by 6 p.m. We will see a high of 65 with west-northwest winds of 9-12 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (6:10 p.m. vs Nationals): Showers end with partial clearing; game may be delayed. I’m expecting a game time temperature of 60.
Tuesday night: Clear skies after midnight with a low of 43.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 61.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 42.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 57.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 43.
Friday: Mostly cloudy by mid-morning with possible showers after 3 p.m. Highs 58-61, lows 48-51.
Saturday: Cloudy with more widespread showers by 3 p.m. Highs 58-61, lows 44-47.
Sunday: Showers/light rain ends by 4 a.m. Partly to mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions expected for the rest of the day. Highs 56-59, lows 42-45.
Monday: Increasing clouds in the early morning, with showers by 8 a.m. Highs 57-60, lows 43-46.