Forecast discussion: A low pressure system that brought winter to the Southeast U.S. gave eastern Massachusetts some scattered snow showers through the late morning and early afternoon. Nantucket received 2 inches today, and radar shows the snow showers still remain over Cape Cod. This activity will dissipate over the next few hours. We will keep some mid-level clouds this evening, helping to keep temperatures from falling too much. However, I would not call it balmy, as the mercury only reaches the lower teens.
The extra moisture will remain around in the morning, keeping the sun behind the clouds. But, a strong high pressure system coming into the Northern Plains will bring more sunshine before sunset. The drier air and light winds will only help increase radiational cooling, and low temperatures will fall into the single digits. The high will provide us with more sunshine on Saturday, but high temperatures will remain constant,only reaching the middle 20’s.
We will experience another cold night entering Sunday morning, where we will begin a rather active pattern. A weak area of low pressure will form just west of Ohio Sunday afternoon, and the low will receive moisture from the tropical jet stream. This means we will see some precipitation before midnight, in the form of snow. The weak area will not develop into a center of low pressure until it passes into the Gulf of Maine Monday afternoon. The precipitation will be moved out by that time. At the moment, I feel we could see around 3 inches from this system, so a Winter Weather Advisory may be conducted by the National Weather Service for our area.
A new high pressure system brings us dry weather for Monday night and into the daytime hours on Tuesday. But, a developing low east of the Rockies will help bring that moisture off the tropical jet towards the east coast. At this time, it appears the low’s center will track into the Great Lakes. This means we will stay on the warm side of the low. Most, if not all, of the precipitation will be in the form of rain. The American model is predicting some heavy rainfall for Wednesday morning, before the precipitation tapers to showers in the afternoon. At this time, the European and American models agree with this scenario.
However, the models do not agree on Thursday’s forecast. The American model believes a second low along the cold front will quickly move up into New England. We would see rain at first, thanks to the lingering warmer air. But, more polar air returns by the middle of the morning, changing the rest of the precipitation we receive to a wintry mix or back to snow. Meanwhile, the European model has the precipitation ending by 7 a.m. Thursday morning. For now, I will keep the worst case scenario, until I see more continuity in either long range model.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: More clouds than stars with a low of 13.
Friday: Partial sunshine in the morning becomes mostly sunny by the late afternoon. We will see a high of 25 with northwest winds at 6-9 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy and colder with a low of 9. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 7-10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 25.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 11.
Sunday: Sunshine in the morning gives way to overcast skies during the afternoon. We will see a high of 32.
Sunday night: Light snow starting around 11 p.m. with a low of 26.
Monday: Light to moderate snow ends by noon. Partly cloudy skies expected by the late evening. A Winter Weather Advisory may be issued. Highs 35-38, lows 15-18.
Tuesday: Early sunshine in the morning gives way to overcast skies by mid-afternoon with a mix of rain and snow after 6 p.m. Highs 31-34, lows 27-30.
Wednesday: Moderate to heavy rain by 7 a.m. tapering in the afternoon, with rain ending by 5 p.m. Highs 38-41, lows 29-32.
Thursday: Moderate snow possible in the early morning, but becomes a wintry mix by 8 a.m. Wintry mix ends by noon. Highs 34-37, lows 16-19.