Forecast discussion: A cold front passed through eastern Massachusetts in the last couple of hours, prompting the increased winds from the northwest. This is due to high pressure ridging meeting with a weak wave of low pressure over eastern Canada. It will remain slightly breezy this evening, but clear skies means the temperatures will drop rapidly. As we head into the weekend in Boston, we will still keep mostly sunny skies, but winds will be increasing from the northwest. So, wind chill temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 20’s.
It will be quite cold Friday night, as the high pressure ridging takes over the weather pattern, helping to diminish the winds. Expect lows to fall into the upper teens north and west of Providence. We will begin to see some extra cloud cover Saturday afternoon, as we await a few showers from a weak disturbance. The isolated showers arrive early Sunday morning and will end by the middle of Sunday morning. By then, we will be awaiting heavier rainfall Sunday night, as a strong low pressure system over eastern Texas moves into the Central U.S. We could see as much as an inch of rain by the time the precipitation moves off into Maine by early Monday afternoon.
Going into mid-week, the computer models have been watching an area of low pressure off the coast of Georgia. Yesterday, the American model believed this low will stay along the coast, giving us the threat of some rain Wednesday afternoon, before changing to a wintry mix or snow showers Wednesday evening. The European model moved the low out to sea. In this afternoon’s model runs, the American model now pushes the frontal boundary the low forms on further out to sea. The European model, however, now creates a low pressure system, but the precipitation shield stays offshore. Therefore, we will see dry weather for Turkey Day. But, colder air will rush in Wednesday afternoon, lowering our temperatures before sunset. At this time, my confidence in the forecast after Wednesday morning remains low. Although there is some better agreement in the solutions, the models basically flip-flop their previous forecast. I am still looking for more continuity from the models before I increase my confidence level.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies and breezy with a low of 28.
Friday: Mostly sunny and windy with a high of 36. Winds will come from the northwest at 19-23 mph. Wind chills will make it feel like the upper 20’s.
Friday night: Partly cloudy and breezy with a low of 23. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 10-13 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with partly sunny skies by sunset. We will have a high of 40.
Saturday night: Overcast skies with an isolated shower by 2 a.m. and a low of 34.
Sunday: Isolated showers end by 8 a.m. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. It will be milder with a high of 50.
Sunday night: Showers/rain arrives by 3 a.m. with a low of 43.
Monday: Rain/showers end by 1 p.m. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Highs 61-64, lows 48-51.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 54-57, lows 38-41.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with temperatures dropping during mid-afternoon. Highs 46-49, 32-35.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 26-29.