This weekend marks the start of the Thanksgiving travel week. There is no doubt that the days leading up to Thanksgiving are some of the busiest travel days of the year and everyone pays a bit more attention to what the weather will do leading up to the holiday.
A quick November weather recap tells us that temperatures are running nearly -3 degrees below normal through the first 21 days. Probably no surprise given the much below normal cold of the past week. Actually, temperatures have been below normal 14 days including the last 8 days in a row. Rainfall is about ¾ of an inch above normal so far.
Toward the late part of November the average high is in the upper 40s to 50 degrees in the local area. The outlook for the weekend suggests that we stay below normal for one more day on Saturday before a nice recovery to slightly above normal temperatures Sunday and then perhaps 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Monday. After that, the mercury slides back into the cooler range by mid week.
Saturday will start off quite chilly with morning temperatures in the 20s, recovering to near 40 degrees in the afternoon. With high pressure dominating the Eastern Seaboard we can expect fair skies with plenty of sunshine. The one downside will be the occasionally gusty southwest winds making it feel chilly through the day. But, the rebound in temperatures begins Saturday night as the mercury stays nearly steady through the evening. Other than a slight chance of a sprinkle or brief light shower late night it should remain partly to mostly cloudy with the lows in the mid to upper 30s. Winds stay busy from the southwest.
The milder southwest flow continues on Sunday. Early cloudiness should give way to partly sunny skies with temperatures rising above normal for the first time in 10 days. Highs clip 50 degrees, topping out in the low 50s with a few spot 55 degree readings possible. A great day to be at Gillette Stadium watching the Patriots game. The winds should calm down a bit making it feel even nicer out there.
Although it remains mild Sunday night skies cloud up with rain developing after midnight. The high to our south will have moved well offshore as a warm front slides northward up the coast. This front will mark the leading edge of even milder air and also brings a shield of rain to our area. The rain could get heavy at times with a wet Monday morning commute likely. Lows Sunday night stay in the 40s, which is more reminiscent of some of our recent high temperatures of the past week. Nonetheless, it stays quite mild overnight meaning this is an all rain event.
Morning rain tapers to showers and hopefully improving skies in the afternoon. Highs on Monday could jump well into the 60s if we get enough afternoon sun. It will also be quite windy from the southwest as a strong low pressure system moves through the upper Great Lakes Region into southern Canada, drawing plenty of warm air and wind into southern New England.
Partly cloudy skies Monday night and still on the mild side. Lows in the 40’s.
The weather becomes more tranquil on Tuesday. Although not as mild it will be a very nice day with highs into the low to mid 50s and lots of sunshine.
A cold front will be offshore Wednesday and the consensus among the computer models is for one or two waves of low pressure to ripple along the front. This could produce a mostly cloudy day on Wednesday with a risk of rain developing in the afternoon. It will also be cooler, highs in the 40s. If you should be traveling toward the Cape Cod area there will be a better chance of rain there since this will be an ocean system. There is a chance of a wintry mix at night before the precipitation shuts off by Thanksgiving morning.
The outlook for Thanksgiving is for a mostly cloudy sky with highs around 40.