A large winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Recent trends in forecast models have been to take the area of low pressure significantly farther north than originally thought. The sensible weather impact on Cincinnati: Less snow and more rain.
Highs will push 40 degrees this afternoon with some early sunshine. Clouds will increase later in the day but it will still be a decent evening. Expect evening temperatures to be in the 30s. Snow flurries will develop mainly north of Cincinnati by midnight. Some light snow may overspread the region overnight leading to a light dusting of snow for Cincinnati and up to an inch farther north (Middletown to Springboro). An inch or inch and half of snow will be possible for Dayton to Columbus before transitioning to rain.
Temperatures will barely dip to freezing mark by 6 a.m. Sunday morning before climbing back above freezing. Any early morning snow will change to some light rain showers by 8 a.m. as we climb into the middle 30s. A lull in precipitation is expected through the late morning hours before the main event comes in for the afternoon.
A large slug of moisture will surge into the Tri-State bringing moderate to even heavy rainfall for most of the afternoon. The temperature will slowly warm into the lower 40s as the area of low pressure nears and passes through Cincinnati. Rain will continue into the early evening hours until the low pulls away to the east sending a strong cold front through between 10 p.m. and 12 a.m. You will definitely want to be inside to watch the Super Bowl!
Slick roads still possible
The temperature will TUMBLE rapidly as cold air surges in from the north Sunday night. We will fall from the lower 40s at 10 p.m. to middle teens by the AM commute. This means leftover rain on the roadways may freeze and turn into black ice especially just after midnight. Please be aware of the threat for icy roads if you plan on traveling home after watching the game.
Scattered snow showers will be possible after midnight as well leading to isolated locations picking up a dusting or half inch of snow. Winds will also turn quite gusty between 25 and 35 mph.
After starting off in the teens Monday morning, a stiff northerly breeze will not allow for much temperature recovery beyond the lower 20s Monday afternoon. A weak weather system will give us a slight nudge up on the temperature around the middle of next week before more cold air comes in behind that system.
So why did the forecast change so much?
Forecast models often struggle to pick up on the strength of an area of low pressure this time of year when the energy spawning the system is so far away. Until Friday, the northern jet stream energy was over the Pacific and far northwest Canada leading to poor data sampling. In the end, the track of the low will not be wildly different that originally forecast, but the actual weather that results will be. If this happened with all weather systems, it would make forecasting much easier! Unfortunately, some make the last minute northerly trend while others do not. If you still want snow, it is only the beginning of February tomorrow so maybe more chances will be down the road!
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