Forecast discussion: At the moment, a low pressure system over eastern Canada is helping to bring a disturbance through Southern New England. The disturbance is creating some showers over Providence as of writing this article. The main cold front is passing into central New York. We will continue to see scattered showers until 8 p.m. We will see partial clearing through the overnight, with the mild temperatures leaving us once again. Temperatures will fall near freezing as we awaken Thursday morning.
High pressure behind the front will pass over New England. We will see light northwest winds, but high temperatures will be colder than Wednesday, as we will only see the lower 40’s. Temperatures will be colder Thursday night, as lows fall into the middle 20’s. We will see some partial sunshine through Friday afternoon, as we await another system Friday night.
A low pressure system will form over Arkansas Friday afternoon, and bring showers ahead of it. The high pressure ridge will break down, allowing showers to fall over the Ocean State before midnight Friday evening. With the cooler temperatures, it is possible that north and west of Providence may see some freezing rain. Eventually, warmer air will help change the precipitation back to rain showers on Saturday. The cold front will stall over New England Saturday night, giving us the possibility of some heavier rainfall during the overnight. The cold front moves off into the Atlantic early Sunday morning, giving us partial sunshine during the day on Sunday.
As we head into early next week, the computer models continue to just disagree on their forecasts. The American model is much drier, keeping the high over New England, and keeping any other systems away from us. The European model has been quite wet, keeping a series of low pressure systems to our south, and giving us more precipitation. After looking over the models, only the European model continues the rainfall on Sunday, which has been more consistent than the American model the last few days. So, I will keep continuity, and have light rain arrive by Sunday night. The system will be slow moving, as the low just meanders south of Southern New England into late Monday.
The biggest problem with the models has been Monday night into Tuesday night. The European keeps that low just stationary, and moving it northward right over Southern New England on Tuesday. The American model is a little different. Our precipitation comes from a combination of a weaker low further southeast of us, with a stronger low over western Quebec. The combination of the two lows will bring us the chance for some light snow, especially early Tuesday morning. But, as we warm up during the day, it will change to a mix of wet snow and rain showers. However, both models agree the system or systems will be east of us by early Wednesday morning, giving us mostly sunny skies.
For now, my confidence in the forecast up to Sunday afternoon is good. But, due to the constant disagreements between the two models after Sunday night, my confidence in the rest of the extended forecast remains low. I’ll probably see a better comparison from the models by Friday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Skies clear after midnight with a low of 33.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with the high only reaching 41. Winds will come from the northwest at 8-11 mph.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 25. Winds will come from the north at 5-8 mph.
Friday: Partly sunny by the early afternoon with a high of 39.
Friday night: Precipitation begins by 11 p.m. I am expecting north and west of Providence to be freezing rain until the middle of Saturday morning. We will see a low of 36.
Saturday: Showers off and on through the day with a high of 48.
Saturday night: Light to moderate rain ends by 4 a.m. with a low of 38.
Sunday: Light to moderate rain returns by the early evening. Highs 43-46, lows 34-37.
Monday: Showers/rain finally ends by 10 p.m. Highs 45-48, lows 36-39.
Tuesday: Cloudy with light snow showers by 6 a.m., converting to a wet snow/rain mix. All precipitation ends by 7 p.m. Highs 43-46, lows 30-33.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-44, lows 27-30.