Forecast discussion: After a cold start to early Sunday morning, a warm front rapidly pushed through New England before sunrise. This helped changed our winds to the southwest, and become quite windy. This helped raise our high temperature to 57 degrees in Providence as of 1 p.m. Eventually high pressure over the Atlantic will give way to a cold front now passing into the western Great Lakes. Winds will turn back to the northwest by tomorrow afternoon.
As the cold front passes through the region on Monday, we may see a few isolated showers during the late morning until the start of the evening commute. Otherwise, we will keep the mild temperatures for the day, but the cold front will drop our temperatures by sunset. By tomorrow night, we will have overnight lows below freezing, as skies begin to clear.
We will have some sunshine on Tuesday, but we will see increasing clouds through the afternoon. Some moisture from the south will come behind a strong high pressure system just off the Gulf of Maine. We will see the precipitation be a mix of rain and snow showers inland, although it will remain just rain along the coast. We will not see much, if any, accumulation due to the ground being too warm from the mild temperatures the last few days. By Wednesday, the precipitation returns to showers and light rain. The showers will continue into early Thursday morning before high pressure brings us mostly sunny skies.
As we look ahead to next weekend, the computer models are all disagreeing. The last couple of model runs, the European and American models feel a weak disturbance from the Tennessee River Valley will move slowly north and into Southern New England Friday night into Saturday. We would see a wintry mix or some snow showers Friday night into Saturday. But, as of Sunday afternoon, both models flip-flop from each other’s forecast. Now, the European feels we will see precipitation, while the American is now making us dry. For now, I am going to keep us dry, but my confidence in the forecast after Thursday is still quite low. I feel I will be adding some kind of precipitation back in tomorrow’s forecast, regardless of which model brings back the precipitation.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a low of 46.
Monday: Overcast with isolated showers around 11 a.m. until 5 p.m. We will see a high of 55 with west-northwest winds of 8-11 mph.
Monday night: Partly cloudy and colder with a low of 28. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 9-12 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by the early afternoon. The high temperature will be much colder, as the mercury only reaches 35.
Tuesday night: A mix of rain and snow showers begin around 8 p.m. The south coast will see rain. We will have a low of 33, with temperatures rising near sunrise.
Wednesday: Wintry mix becomes showers/light rain by 7 a.m. with a high of 53.
Wednesday night: Showers end by 1 a.m. with partial clearing. We will see a low of 36.
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies and colder. Highs 43-46, lows 26-29.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-41, lows 28-31.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 24-27.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-43, lows 25-28.