Forecast discussion: At the moment, Providence, and the rest of Rhode Island, is enjoying bright blue skies and that April sunshine. The weather decided not to play us for fools today. However, as we move into the end of the week, we will begin to see a lot of wet weather.
For now, let’s enjoy the high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, as it moves over us this evening. Winds will be calm and skies will be clear. We will begin to see some high clouds move over us by dawn, in advance of a strong low pressure system moving into the Northern Plains. We will see cloudy skies by the afternoon, and winds will be increasing, as the pressure gradient tightens. The warm front may help trigger some scattered showers by tomorrow night. We will continue to see scattered activity into Friday afternoon, before we begin to see steadier and heavier rainfall. By this time, temperatures will actually be above normal for this time of the year, as the mercury will try to reach 60 degrees.
After the warm front passes, we will have the chance at some isolated thunderstorms heading into Friday night and early Saturday morning. The cold front will pass over us by mid-morning, and move offshore by the late afternoon. Winds will increase once again, as high pressure ridging tries to advance behind the low pressure system. Also, colder air will once again take over Southern New England. We will probably see our high temperature sometime Saturday morning, as temperatures fall throughout the afternoon.
Saturday night and Sunday’s weather does not look to bad. We will see increasing clouds as we awaken Easter Sunday, but the morning Easter egg hunts look good at the moment. The weather will be dry if you are heading to church, but a weak disturbance moving through Northern New England could bring a few passing showers by the afternoon. However, temperatures will once again be below normal.
As we begin a new workweek, a warm front from the central U.S. will extend into New England. The front may help trigger some scattered showers by Monday afternoon. As the low works eastward, we will enter the precipitation shield, and see steadier precipitation by early Tuesday morning. It looks like Tuesday will be a total washout, and the models are very different with their forecasts for next Wednesday. The American model puts the low’s center over us Wednesday morning, with drier skies by the afternoon. The European model keeps the low well into the Mid-Atlantic near Pennsylvania, and we remain in rainfall for most of the day. At this time, I will call for the American model, as it has been more consistent the last few days with its forecast. However, my overall confidence remains low, due to the different scenarios the models are giving me at the moment.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 28.
Thursday: Sun and clouds in the morning gives way to cloudy skies by the mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 52 with winds increasing from the southwest to 15-20 mph by 2 p.m.
Thursday night: Overcast and breezy with scattered showers arriving by 9 p.m. We will see a low of 44 with southwest winds of 14-17 mph.
Friday: Scattered showers in the morning with heavier rainfall by the mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 59.
Friday night: Rain with possible thunderstorms and patchy fog. We will see a low of 45.
Saturday: Rain with increasing winds by mid-morning. Precipitation ends by noon, with partly sunny skies expected the rest of the day. We will see a high of 50 with temperatures dropping through the day.
Saturday night: Clear skies with increasing clouds into dawn with a low of 30.
Easter: Partly sunny with possible showers by 1 p.m. and ending by 10 p.m. Highs 45-48, lows 30-33.
Monday: Partly sunny with showers possible by 3 p.m. Highs 46-49, lows 34-37.
Tuesday: Overcast with showers/rain. Highs 49-52, lows 39-42.
Wednesday: Precipitation ends by noon, with some sun and clouds for the rest of the day. Highs 50-53, lows 35-38.