Forecast discussion: Well, we went two for two in Providence for days with beautiful weather. Sunday was just gorgeous, with abundant sunshine, and crystal blue skies. Temperatures were seasonable, and winds were rather light. This good weather will continue into tonight, thanks in part to a strong high pressure system over western West Virginia.
The high will give us one more day of nice weather, and temperatures will be consistent with the weekend during the daytime. However, the high will begin to move off to the east and into the Atlantic by Tuesday afternoon. This will allow a low pressure system bringing a possible tornado into Oklahoma right now to move slowly to the northeast. We will see the chance for some showers by the start of the evening commute Tuesday, with showers and light rain Tuesday night.
At this time, the air will be too warm for the precipitation to change to snow. Any showers will taper off late Wednesday morning, and we may see a few peeks of sunshine before the end of the day. From there, high pressure behind the low will give us some dry weather. There is the slight chance that a weak disturbance coming down from Canada may trigger some flurries or light snow showers Thursday night into Friday morning. Otherwise, we will see partly sunny skies into Saturday.
As we look ahead to the following weekend, the computer models are still very unsure how to handle a developing low pressure system in the Southwest U.S. on Wednesday. Both models agree the low will slowly move towards New England for Saturday. But what we receive from this low is becoming the main question. The American model keeps the low weaker and more out to sea. So, we would see some snow showers Saturday night, with warmer air changing it to all rain next Sunday. The European model keeps the low near the New Jersey coast, and makes the low stronger. So, we would see a mix of rain and snow, with strong winds.
At this time, I still do not feel very confident in either model. Also, other computer models are not showing me any consistency. The United Kingdom model keeps the low further south and weaker than the other models on Saturday. Finally, the Canadian model keeps the low still near western Texas on Saturday. So, four models, and I am seeing four different solutions. For now, I will go with the American model, as it has been the most consistent with the track and intensity of the low. But, my overall confidence in the forecast after Saturday morning remains very low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 29.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 42. Winds will come from the north-northeast at 4-7 mph.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 35. Winds will be light and variable.
Tuesday: Overcast by mid-morning with showers possible by 4 p.m. and a high of 46.
Tuesday night: Light rain showers with a low of 39.
Wednesday: Isolated rain showers end by 11 a.m. Partly sunny skies expected by the afternoon. We will see a high of 47 with temperatures falling towards sunset.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 31.
Thursday: Partly sunny with possible flurries during the evening. Highs 39-42, lows 28-31.
Friday: Morning flurries give way to partly sunny skies. Highs 39-42, lows 28-31.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies in the morning, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. We could see some light snow showers by 9 p.m. Highs 39-42, lows 32-35.
Sunday: Snow changing to rain. Highs 40-43, lows 26-29.