Forecast discussion: Thanks to tropical moisture moving over the area this late morning, Providence did not see the sunny skies I forecasted. The extra cloud cover came from the same system that will bring a plethora of weather over Wednesday. This will definitely hinder travel plans, both by car or plane, as we head to our Thanksgiving destinations. Just to update everyone, the Winter Storm Watch was cancelled for northwest Rhode Island. However, the northern part of the state, including Providence County, is now under a Winter Weather Advisory from 7 a.m. Wednesday until 7 a.m. Thursday morning.
But, if you are heading out tonight, and able to arrive before 5 a.m. Wednesday morning, you will be fine. Right now, the low is centered just on shore over central North Carolina. The low will move right up the shoreline, and we will begin to see the effects of the system just before the morning commute. In just a few short hours, the rainfall will become heavier. As we head into the late morning, the effects of colder air trying to move east, as well as the cooler air coming down from the rain itself, will help lower our high temperature for the day. So, after 10 a.m. we will begin to see some snow showers mix with the rain. By the time the evening commute starts, and people are trying to reach their destination for Thursday, we will see moderate rain mixing with sleet and snow. This may create a coating on the ground and streets. However, the Department of Transportation has salt trucks and snow plows ready, should the highway and streets get icy.
We will continue to see this mix until northwest Rhode Island changes over to all snow by the early evening. For the Providence area, I am not expecting a full changeover to snow until just before midnight. By this time, the precipitation will begin to taper, limiting accumulations. The main part of the storm will end by Thursday morning, although the computer models suggest some leftover snow showers may start up during the early afternoon. However, this will not add to any of the accumulations. After reviewing the local television snow maps, I feel WJAR’s map best fits the forecast. However, I still think northwest Rhode Island will see about 5-7 inches total, up to about Glocester.
After this Nor’Easter moves away, the rest of the weekend is rather quiet. We will keep partly to mostly sunny skies right into Sunday, with temperatures trying to reach the lower 40’s by Saturday. On Sunday, warmer air will try to filter back into our atmosphere, as a warm front moves across Southern New England. We will see temperatures jump towards the upper 40’s, with the risk of some rain showers after sunset. After this long weekend, we will head back to work and school with mostly sunny skies, with temperatures slowly falling back into the lower 40’s for daytime highs on Tuesday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Overcast with showers arriving by 5 a.m. with a low of 37.
Wednesday: Overcast with light to moderate rain beginning before 10 a.m. Moderate to heavy rain will mix with snow up to 3 p.m. By 4 p.m. we will see a mix of rain, sleet and snow showers. The high will actual fall from 39 in the morning to about 34 by around 1 p.m. with northeast winds 6-9 mph increasing to 16-20 mph by 4 p.m.
Wednesday night: Northwest Rhode Island changes to all snow by 8 p.m. and will be heavy at times. Northeast Rhode Island and areas west and south of Providence will changeover to snow by 11 p.m. So, everyone will be snow by 11 p.m. in Rhode Island. Snow will continue through the overnight. We will see a low of 30 with northwest winds of 10-13 mph by 4 a.m.
Thanksgiving Day: All snow showers end by 8 a.m. However, there will be a brief period of time during the early afternoon hours we may see passing snow showers. At this time, I’m expecting a total of 5-7 inches in northwest RI up to Foster and Glocester. From Glocester to Pawtucket and then making a line through Coventry and North Scituate, this area will see 3-5 inches. From a line to Westerly back north to East Greenwich, this area will see 1-3 inches. We will see a high of 38 with partial sunshine in the afternoon.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 24.
Friday: Partly sunny with a high of 37.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 22.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Highs 38-41, lows 30-33.
Sunday: Partly sunny with possible showers by 5 p.m. Highs 47-50, lows 35-38.
Monday: Scattered showers end by 3 a.m. with sunny skies and slightly colder temperatures. Highs 44-47, lows 26-29.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-44, lows 27-30.