Forecast discussion: I hope my readers had their gloves and hats this morning, as we started Wednesday very cold. At T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, we reached a low of 21 degrees. But, we did have crystal blue skies throughout the day, helping to make it feel a little warmer. But, as we head into Thursday, we will see strong winds and more cloud cover, making it feel colder than the actual temperature.
A low pressure system that brought all that lake effect snow for New York will pass through the area Thursday. I am not expecting any precipitation, as the front is mostly dry. But, it will meet with the high pressure ridging from the south. This will create a strong pressure gradient, and therefore, create stronger winds. So, wind chills will make it feel like the lower to middle 30’s during the day. The cold weather continues into the weekend, as high temperatures will be in the upper 30’s Friday and Saturday, with overnight lows in the middle 20’s.
As we head into early next week, a weak cold front will push through New England late Sunday morning. There is the chance for some isolated showers for a brief period of time. Temperatures will actually be increasing, as the polar vortex gets pushed back north, and warmer air from the south streams back into the Northeast U.S. A second low along the front will bring another round of showers early Monday morning. The showers will come to an end by the mid-afternoon, but a second round of showers from a stronger low will arrive before midnight.
The low will be to our west, and quickly passing through the Mid-Atlantic. So, the computer models believe the showers will end by early Tuesday morning, with mostly sunny skies expected late Tuesday morning. A weak high pressure ridge will give us dry weather into Wednesday afternoon.
The computer models are disagreeing on how to handle a low pressure system along the Southeast coast Thanksgiving Eve. The American model develops a low, and brings it north. So, New England would be receiving showers early Wednesday morning, and we would see precipitation into early Thanksgiving morning. With colder air trying to move back into New England, the precipitation may change to a wintry mix or snow showers. The European model keeps us dry, with the front moving offshore by Wednesday afternoon. So, at this time, my confidence in the forecast after Tuesday’s forecast is low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds with possible snow showers by after 2 a.m., especially along the coast. We will see a low of 30.
Thursday: Partly sunny, windy, and warmer with a high of 44. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 17-22 mph with occasional gusts of 30 mph.
Thursday night: Clear skies with a low of 24. Winds will come from the west at 9-13 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 37.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 25.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with some cloud cover by sunset. We will have a high of 39.
Saturday night: Overcast skies with a low of 33.
Sunday: Overcast with isolated showers by the late morning through the late afternoon. Highs 50-53, lows 43-46.
Monday: Showers/rain arrives by 2 a.m. Precipitation ends by 3 p.m. Possible showers by 9 p.m. Highs 60-63, lows 48-51.
Tuesday: Showers end by 2 a.m. Mostly sunny skies expected by the late morning. Increasing clouds expected by the early evening. Highs 55-58, lows 38-41.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with possible showers by 2 p.m. Precipitation may change over to a wintry mix or snow showers by 8 p.m. Highs 46-49, 37-40.