Forecast discussion: Temperatures were below normal this morning, and in some parts of Rhode Island, it looked more like winter than spring. Over Pawtucket, RI around 5:30 this morning were some snow flurries. The low temperatures will be cold once again before midnight, and freezing temperatures are possible. A Freeze Watch is in effect for northwest Providence and western Kent Counties for this evening.
As we head into Saturday, high pressure over northern Ohio will finally give us a day of bright sunshine, with the colder air aloft moving out to sea. Temperatures will reach the middle 50’s for high temperatures, although we will keep a cold northwest breeze. A few clouds tomorrow night will help give us a slight ”blanket”, keeping temperatures warmer, as the radiation does not go back into the atmosphere.
We will see mostly sunny skies on Sunday morning, but high and mid-level clouds will begin to take over the skies later in the afternoon. This is due to a weak low pressure system hanging near Maine. This low will help trigger some isolated showers Sunday night into early Monday morning. But, the showers will return, as the sun allows the atmosphere to heat up, and create some instability. We will see isolated to scattered showers into Tuesday afternoon, as the low moves out into the Atlantic.
As we head into the end of April, my eyes will be watching the models closely in the Southeast U.S. A low pressure system hanging over Florida will create some showers and periods of rain. However, the computer models are very unsure if the low will stay to our south, or if it will move far enough north for us to be hit with the precipitation shield. At this time, the American model brings us showers for Wednesday night into Friday. But, the precipitation comes more from a low pressure system to our north, and not the southeast low. The European model pushes that low out to sea, keeping us dry through the forecast period.
Right now, based on seeing yesterday’s model run, the American model was drier, keeping the low further south. This agrees more with the European model’s forecast for today. For now, I am going to keep us dry, but my confidence in the forecast after Tuesday is quite low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies after 11 p.m. and cold with a low of 34.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 56. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 12-15 mph.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 39. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 4-7 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by the late afternoon a high of 56.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a widely isolated shower by 8 p.m. and ending by 3 a.m. We will see a low of 41.
Monday: Mostly sunny until mid-morning, with increasing clouds and isolated showers by 8 a.m. We will see a high of 54.
Monday night: Isolated to scattered showers with a low of 43.
Tuesday: Scattered showers end by 2 p.m. but remaining mostly cloudy. Highs 55-58, lows 41-44.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs 58-61, lows 44-47.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-62, lows 44-47.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs 54-57, lows 43-46.