Forecast discussion: A cold front brought some widely scattered showers through Rhode Island during the morning on Tuesday. The front is now offshore, with some partial clearing. High pressure over Wisconsin will bring a ridge into New England by tonight, giving us clear skies and comfortable temperatures for mid-April.
We will see bright sunshine on Wednesday, with temperatures slightly cooler than the 67 degrees high we received on Tuesday. This will be due to the northeast winds coming off the Boston Harbor, and the rest of the Atlantic. We will see good radiational cooling tomorrow night, as clear skies and light winds help drop our low temperatures into the upper 30’s. It will be cooler on Thursday, despite the bright sunshine. However, the weather looks good for the Pawtucket Red Sox home opener at McCoy Stadium Thursday night.
By Friday, winds will slowly shift to the west, which will allow some moisture to our south to filter up into New England. We may see the slight risk for a passing shower during Friday afternoon; otherwise, we will see more clouds than sun. The best chance for steadier precipitation will occur during the weekend.
On Saturday, a slow moving cold front will finally make its way towards the east coast. We will see scattered showers by Saturday morning, but I would not call the day a total washout. The precipitation will be rather light, so any Little League baseball games should continue without a delay. I am expecting heavier and steadier rainfall by Saturday night, continuing into Sunday morning. We will see the rainfall taper to showers by the middle of Sunday morning, before ending in the early afternoon.
After looking over the models, I am finding lower confidence as I reach the timeframe for Monday. The American model believes a second low over the Southeast U.S. will bring us more rainfall by early Monday morning. The European model has the system stalling, and not arriving until Tuesday. For now, I will stick with the American model’s forecast, as it has been more consistent from the previous model run. However, being six days out, the models can flip-flop their forecasts this far out in time. Regardless, cooler air will move back south, giving us temperatures in the lower to middle 50’s by Monday. Some sunshine on Tuesday helps to raise the temperatures back into the upper 50’s next Tuesday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies by midnight with a low of 44.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 64. Winds will come from the north-northeast at 10-13 mph.
Wednesday night: Clear skies with a low of 37. Winds will come from the northwest at 3-6 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 59.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 41.
Friday: Partly sunny with the risk of an isolated shower and a high of 59.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 49.
Saturday: Overcast with scattered showers by 11 a.m. Showers become more widespread by 9 p.m. Highs 62-65, lows 45-48.
Sunday: Showers/light rain ends by 1 p.m. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Highs 58-61, lows 40-43.
Monday: Overcast and cooler with showers/light rain by 4 a.m. Showers end by 9 p.m. Highs 53-56, lows 42-45.
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies and cooler. Highs 56-59, lows 43-46.