Forecast discussion: High pressure over Ohio gave Providence a beautiful day, but it was a little chilly to enjoy it. Our high temperature for the day only reached 36 degrees. Also, if you take the 20 mph winds into effect that made the wind chill temperatures feel like the lower 20’s. As we approach the weekend, temperatures will be increasing, but we will also get more rainfall.
For this evening, calmer winds will make the mercury fall into the lower 20’s. North and west of Providence may fall into the upper teens. We will see sunshine once again for Saturday, and a southwest breeze will help raise temperatures into the lower 40’s. A weak disturbance will pass over Southern New England Saturday night, prompting mostly cloudy skies and the risk for some isolated showers. With the cloud cover, our temperatures will be milder, with temperatures staying in the middle 30’s. Any isolated showers will end by late Sunday morning, with partial sunshine for the rest of the day. High temperatures will actually be seasonable, with highs in the lower 50’s.
A warm front will pass through Southern New England Sunday night, but the warm front will also bring some moderate rain. A half inch of rain is possible by noon Monday afternoon. We will see some lingering showers for the rest of the day. We will begin to clear out early Tuesday morning. We will continue to see mild temperatures for one more day, before the cold front pushes through, helping to lower our temperatures into the upper 30’s Tuesday night.
As we head into Thanksgiving Eve, the models continue to change its forecast. Now, the European and American models believe a developing low off the coast of Georgia Tuesday night will push north Wednesday, and provide us with mostly cloudy skies and some precipitation into early Thursday morning. It will remain mild, so the precipitation will start off as rain. But, the precipitation may end as a wintry mix or snow showers Wednesday night. The American model believes we may see some snow showers into 4 a.m. Thursday morning.
The models both agree that Thanksgiving Day will be dry, but breezy, as the low pushes off to the north and east. But, the European model believes a new low pressure system will form off the Southeast coastline, and move northward for Friday. This would bring the risk of either snow or rain during the time everyone is taking advantage of sales and getting their Christmas shopping done. The American model keeps high pressure ridging over us, keeping the main low from Wednesday out to sea. For now, due to the differences in the models, my confidence in the forecast after Tuesday is great. When we get to Wednesday, my confidence is fair, as the models are beginning to come to the same agreement. But, after Thursday, my confidence is poor, because the models come to two completely different solutions.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies and cold with a low of 21.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies and breezy. Partly sunny skies expected by sunset. We will have a high of 42 with southwest winds of 13-16 mph.
Saturday night: Overcast skies with an isolated shower by 3 a.m. and a low of 36. Winds will come from the southwest at 8-11 mph.
Sunday: Isolated showers end by 10 a.m. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. It will be milder with a high of 53.
Sunday night: Showers/rain arrives by 4 a.m. with a low of 43.
Monday: Rain tapers to showers by noon. Lingering showers will persist for the rest of the day. It will be quite mild with the mercury rising to 63.
Monday night: Precipitation tapers off completely by 2 a.m. with a low of 49.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-58, lows 37-40.
Wednesday: Overcast with showers possible by the mid-afternoon. Precipitation may end as some snow showers before midnight. Highs 44-47, 32-35.
Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny and breezy. Highs 41-44, lows 28-31.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-43, lows 24-27.