According to the Telegraph, Ayatollah Ali Khameni could accept a 10-year deal if sanctions are lifted quickly. If President Obama and his team can convince Congress that the deal will stop Iranian nuclear weapons development in its tracks backed by intrusive inspections, then the U.S. and allies could open trade with the Iranian government that continues to be a rogue regime and that is out of step with the free world. However, other negotiators, Russia and China are also out of step, are they not?
So what kind of deal is this, Israel asks?
It is one of those “trust-but-verify” moments.
The context for such an agreement is a Middle East in which Islamic factions are deeply engaged in combat among themselves while also projecting violence against the free world. The U.S. has stakes in most of the active theaters, and sometimes apparent conflicting interests.
Among the warring governments and factions, there are few that embrace Western free-world standards for pluralistic democracy. Yet, diplomatic solutions require compromise and collaboration among disparate parties. Ultimately, common ground is found in economics as participants seek to optimize their positions.
In situations like this one must shock the system with bold questions:
What would happen if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons or was in a position to project a nuclear attack on nearby European and Sunni Arabian targets?
Will the U.S. remain aligned with Sunni Arab allies in preference over Iranians and Shiite Muslims?
On whose side will Russia and China take?
The prospect of Iranians initiating a nuclear attack on anyone anytime soon is remote because they gain nothing and potentially lose everything. Iranians are self interested and motivated and will not go down that road.
The Middle East is conflicted by Islamic sects and various forms of regionalism based on ethnic history. Pluralism is the answer because even if “states” are formed around sects and factions, they still must coexist. Drawing lines among the participants has no reward while joining communities hold advantage when political solutions permit.
Collapse of the petroleum energy paradigm will change these economies quickly and decisively. Sustainable solutions are needed at once, and to obtain help, Middle Eastern people must embrace democratic pluralism even with their own twist or spin.
“How long will the deal last?
The sticking points are tied to Iran’s ability to enrich uranium.
Teheran’s leaders insist their nuclear program is for civilian purposes. But the U.S. and other P5+1 countries that are involved in the talks — the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia — fear Iran wants to build nuclear weapons.
To that end, negotiators want to freeze Iran’s nuclear program for 10 years. But Iran has bristled at that timeline; last year its leaders sought to end the deal within seven years.
Ayatollah Syed Salman Safavi, who is close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, told the Telegraph newspaper that the country could accept a 10-year deal as long as sanctions are lifted quickly.”