Everything we humans do on Earth is impacted by the weather. Most of us older folks used to joke; “If you don’t like the weather, hang on; as it will soon change.”
However the debate around cause, man-made or not, is really academic now as we are all witnessing severe swings of long term weather patterns we older folks think are odd – considering our life time experience.
Early climatologist were thinking in the 1960s the Earth was heading into another Ice Age; however abundant Industrial and personal car gases emissions seemed to be reversing that former scientific Ice Age prediction.
Frankly, “Global Warming” appeared to be a good thing; as I remember when we used to routinely have 70-feet of snow on our mountain passes; as a young man. The author, in early 1970s, was a Wilderness Ranger in a central Idaho Wilderness Area; and heavy snows stopped me from work until the snow melted in June to September.
· Scientists, with modern satellites, first documented a dramatic yearly planetary weather change they called El Nino or a “little child” or technically called “El Niño southern oscillation”.
How El Niño will change the world’s weather in 2014
“The global El Niño weather phenomenon, whose impacts cause global famines, floods – and even wars – now has a 90% chance of striking this year, according to the latest forecast released to the Guardian.
El Niño begins as a giant pool of warm water swelling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, that sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the world – some devastating and some beneficial.
India is expected to be the first to suffer, with weaker monsoon rains undermining the nation’s fragile food supply, followed by further scorching droughts in Australia and collapsing fisheries off South America. But some regions could benefit, in particular the US, where El Niño is seen as the “great wet hope” whose rains could break the searing drought in the west.”
The European weather watchers were saying as late as June of 2014 that El Nino was coming back!
“The latest El Niño prediction comes from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is considered one the most reliable of the 15 or so prediction centers around the world. “It is very much odds-on for an event,” said Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at ECMWF, who said 90% of their scenarios now deliver an El Niño. “The amount of warm water in the Pacific is now significant, perhaps the biggest since the 1997-98 event.” That El Niño was the biggest in a century, producing the hottest year on record at the time and major global impacts, including amass die-off of corals.”
“Europe is the continent least affected by El Niño by virtue of being on the opposite side of the world.
However, in the tropics and sub-tropics, another deadly impact of El Niño is becoming better understood: its ability to spark civil wars. Solomon Hsiang, at Columbia University, New York, showed in 2011 that 50 of the 250 conflicts between 1950 and 2004 were triggered by the El Niño cycle, probably due to the loss of crops, jobs and the psychological effects of hotter weather.
Hsiang told the Guardian that, based on historical data, a Pacific warming of 0.8C is associated with a rise in the annual risk of conflict of 15%. The current forecasts indicate that this year’s warming will most probably lie between 0.5C and 1.5C. “
The International Debate over cutting industrial greenhouse emission is getting serious!
“Policymakers are likely also to feel the heat of El Niño in the negotiations towards a global deal to cut carbon emissions and tackle global warming, which must culminate in Paris in December 2015. Since the scorching year of 1998, the rate of global warming has slowed, with over 90% of the heat trapped by CO2 going into the oceans…..”
Another Hawaiian weather forecaster in 2014 has noticed a big change in the Pacific warming now; as it appears to moving into the northern Pacific –off the Oregon Coast!
Classic old 1990s El Nino weather patterns were typically focused on the south Pacific and related to Chile and Peru super-heated Pacific waters –caused El Nino?
“If 2014 turns out to be an El Niño year as currently forecasted, increased public awareness of the dangers of human-induced climate change is likely to follow,” said Prof Michael Raupach, director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University. “However, it is very important that our policy responses do not wax and wane with El Niño….”
India and Australia oddly are the nations most affected by El Nino via massive droughts.
“The link between global warming and El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, is not yet well understood by scientists. But a study published in January (2014) predicted a doubling of extreme El Niño events, as climate change ramps up.
Either way, adding the impacts of El Niño to the extreme weather already being driven by climate change increases the damage caused, said Stockdale: “El Niño can be the thing that pushes you over the edge. It will be in the years when you get a big El Niño when you feel the impact of climate change the most.”
However the climate patterns figured out as “1990s El Nino” may be ancient history now; as the thin strips of lands of South America and Africa seem to be no longer heating our Pacific waters. It appears the massive North American and Asian Continents are producing the Pacific heating by November 14, 2014.
2014 – The Highest Global Mean Sea Surface Temperatures Ever Recorded
“This summer has seen the highest global mean sea surface temperatures ever recorded since their systematic measuring started. Temperatures even exceed those of the record-breaking 1998 El Niño year,” says Axel Timmermann, climate scientist and professor, studying variability of the global climate system at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
From 2000-2013 the global ocean surface temperature rise paused, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This period, referred to as the Global Warming Hiatus, raised a lot of public and scientific interest. However, as of April 2014 Ocean warming has picked up speed again, according to Timmermann’s analysis of ocean temperature datasets.
“The 2014 global ocean warming is mostly due to the North Pacific, which has warmed far beyond any recorded value (Figure 1a) and has shifted hurricane tracks, weakened trade winds, and produced coral bleaching in the Hawaiian Islands,” explains Timmermann.”
Further Timmermann observes:
“Sea-surface temperatures started to rise unusually quickly in the extra-tropical North Pacific already in January 2014.
A few months later, in April and May, westerly winds pushed a huge amount of very warm water usually stored in the western Pacific along the equator to the eastern Pacific. This warm water has spread along the North American Pacific coast, releasing into the atmosphere enormous amounts of heat–heat that had been locked up in the Western tropical Pacific for nearly a decade.”
This documented 2000-2013 or thirteen year Hiatus-Period appears to focus upon simply on the North Pacific itself absorbing a lot of planetary heating and this HAITUS HEATING seem to be restricted to simply heating the North Pacific seawaters and the 1990s El Nino, long-term climate weather swings were not documented internationally?
“Record-breaking greenhouse gas concentrations and anomalously weak North Pacific summer trade winds, which usually cool the ocean surface, have contributed further to the rise in sea surface temperatures. The warm temperatures now extend in a wide swath from just north of Papua New Guinea to the Gulf of Alaska (Figure 1b),” says Timmermann.
The current record-breaking temperatures indicate that the 14-year-long pause in ocean warming has come to an end.”
With the huge pool of warmed seawaters in the Pacific Ocean now seems to be creating a hot air bubble & drought over the North American West coast and our mild winter; whereas frigid arctic air seems to be slamming the Midwest and east Coast under feet of snow this winter.
However, when warm Pacific rains now swing across America occasionally, you face flooding conditions on the ground?
Will this pattern lock in? Keep your seat belts on!
Climate scientists today feel vindicated by their dire prediction in 2012; in spite of a 13-year cool down period in the Pacific.
Unusually High Frequency of Heatwaves Indicates Human Influence on Global Warming (August 8, 2012)
“There has been a definite, palpable impact on the Earth’s climate by global warming. The unusual high frequency of heatwaves indicates that there has to be a human influence. As much of the USA sizzles through another scorching summer and the Midwest endures a historic drought, NASA’s climatologist James Hansen states that the future he predicted in 1988 has finally arrived.”
Warming Affects Economic Growth in Developing Nations
“Even temporary rises in local temperatures significantly damage long-term economic growth in the world’s developing nations, according to a new study co-authored by an MIT economist.
Looking at weather data over the last half-century, the study finds that every 1-degree-Celsius increase in a poor country, over the course of a given year, reduces its economic growth by about 1.3 percentage points. However, this only applies to the world’s developing nations; wealthier countries do not appear to be affected by the variations in temperature.
“Higher temperatures lead to substantially lower economic growth in poor countries,” says Ben Olken, a professor of economics at MIT, who helped conduct the research.
And while it’s relatively straightforward to see how droughts and hot weather might hurt agriculture, the study indicates that hot spells have much wider economic effects.
“What we’re suggesting is that it’s much broader than [agriculture],” Olken adds. “It affects investment, political stability and industrial output.”
“If you think about people working in factories on a 105-degree day with no air conditioning, you can see how it makes a difference,” Olken says.
One consequence of this, borne out in the data, is that the higher temperatures in a given year affect not only a country’s economic activity at the time, but its growth prospects far into the future; by the numbers, growth lagged following hot years.
To see why, Olken suggests, first think of a dry year for vegetables in your backyard garden: The bad weather would hurt the plants, but if the weather is reasonable the following year, the backyard crop would return to its normal level. Now contrast that with problems that affect, say, industrial and technological development, and capital investment; temperature shocks limiting those activities can compound over time.
“If you think about economic growth, you build on where you were last year,” Olken explains. For longer-term industrial or technological projects, he adds, “If it’s that kind of activity that’s lost, then it affects the country’s long-run growth rate, [and it’s] not a one-off hit.”
“Olken, Dell and Jones also integrated data about forms of government into the study, and found that temperature shocks are associated with an increase in political instability. A 1-degree-Celsius rise in a given year, they found, raises the probability of “irregular leader transitions,” such as coups, by 3.1 percentage points in poor countries. In turn, the authors write, “poor economic performance and political instability are likely mutually reinforcing.”
Olivier Deschenes, an economist at the University of California at Santa Barbara, calls the study “an important finding because most of the prior research on the economic impacts of climate changes have focused on a few sectors of the economy, predominantly the agricultural sector.” By contrast, he notes, the broader finding of the current paper matters “because the growth rate is a key measure of the economic success of a nation and the standard of living of its population.”
Deschenes, who also conducts research on the economic and health effects of temperature changes, suggests that the “next step” for scholars “is to identify adaptation strategies that can moderate the negative impacts of global climate change in the coming decades.”
Frankly, We Americans cannot fathom why Arab terrorist would volunteer to be suicide bomber in the Middle East now; but we have not lived desperate lives in squalor under increasing heat.
“As Olken observes, the study does not try to account for all the possible problems that could be generated by long-term climate change, such as rising oceans, floods or increased storms. Still, he adds, the paper does suggest some general points about the economic impact of a warming atmosphere. It is vital, he says, to “think about the heterogeneity of the impact between the poor and rich countries” when leaders and policymakers map out the problems the world may confront in the future.
“The impacts of these things are going to be worse for the countries that have the least ability to adapt to it,” he adds. “[We] want to think that through for the implications for future inequality. It’s a double whammy.”
Paul Nurse accuses politicians of ‘cowardice’ over scientific evidence
13 January 2015
“Politicians are “cowardly” in their repeated ignorance of scientific evidence that may be unpopular with the public, Sir Paul Nurse has said.
The Royal Society president and Nobel Prize-winning geneticist said politicians “must be honest” when disregarding scientists’ findings.
They have the evidence in front of them but they sometimes are cowardly about using their intelligence”
Sir Paul Nurse President of the Royal Society
Sir Paul explained he feels “distressed” when scientists find clear evidence that contributes to a particular issue – such as drugs policy – only for politicians to ignore it “because they don’t think it will play well with the public”.
“It indicates a total lack of leadership on the politicians’ part,” he told BBC News night’s Evan Davis.
Sir Paul said he appreciated politicians have to make decisions distinct from science, but argued they “must be honest” with scientists.
“I do think it’s the responsibility of the politicians to listen to the scientists and transfer information [before they] say ‘We’re going to ignore it,'” he added.
These wealthy politicians will be dead and gone by the time severe global warming rears its ugly head; so the voting electorate has to do something to elect more credible or at least honest politicians. Our future generations will curse us more than these idiots 21st Century no-name politicians – we all allowed to damage our Home and only safe planet in the Universe.
Frankly, it would really help greatly if the American U.S. Constitution based “fourth independent branch of government” or the national media was not aligned with all the status quo politicians or on the take or owned by wealthy polluting corporations.
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